SCEINCE

Scientists say most people can probably live to 130 and probably longer

Almost not everyone wants to die.

It turns out that people are likely to live to be at least 130 years old and potentially much older, statistically, according to recent research. published in the journal Open science of the Royal Society. But it should not be said that the chances for most of us who live so long are incredibly small.

While it doesn’t hurt to hope, we will probably need a major scientific revolution in medical technology to turn over a century of life into a common condition.

Statistically, you can live to 130

The far limit of human life remains the subject of heated debate, with recent studies showing that we may be able to live 150 years, while others are pushing the outer limit completely, arguing that human life is not necessarily limited by a fixed life span. If this were the case, there is no maximum age for humans, but a recent study analyzed recent data on super-centenarians, which is the term for people over the age of 110, in addition to semi-super-centuries, who have turned 105 years old or after. They found that although the risk of death increased steadily with age, this risk eventually remained a plateau and therefore remained constant, with a 50-50 chance of living or dying for each subsequent year.

“After the age of 110, one can think of living another year as if it were almost like tossing an honest coin,” said Professor Anthony Davison of statistics at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne (EPFL), who is also leading the recent study. AFP, According to press release. “If heads appear, then you live to see our next birthday, and if not, then you will die at some point next year.” Current data suggest that humans could live to at least 130, but the study suggests simple extrapolation suggests that “there is no limit to human life expectancy.” These conclusions are in line with similar statistical estimates performed on data sets for the extremely elderly.

Life to 130 is a “one in a million” event

“But this study reinforces these conclusions and makes them more accurate because more data is already available,” Davison said in AFP report. The original dataset comes from newly released material from the International Longevity Database, which represents more than 1,100 supercentenarians from 13 different countries. The second set of data comes from Italy, including anyone who was at least 105 years old from January 2009 to December 2015. The procedure requires extrapolation of existing data, but Davison defends this as a necessary, even logical, approach to the study. “Any end-age study, whether statistical or biological, will involve extrapolation,” he added. “We have been able to show that if there is a limit of less than 130 years, we should be able to detect it by now using the available data.”

However, although people can do it 130 or even older, is unlikely to happen. One of the reasons comes from the harsh fact that few of us will achieve the remarkably rare feat of living in 100 years. And let’s say you’re really 110. From then on, your chances of living another twenty years and becoming 130 are “about one in a million … not impossible, but very unlikely,” Davison said. AFP report. Although we will probably see more people reach this age in the next century, the probability of one person reaching it remains one in a million. Currently, the oldest person still alive is the Japanese Kane Tanaka, who is only 118 years old. So if living to 130 is your plan b, the best way to do this is to create the great medical revolution you want to see in the world and extend life expectancy with the pure brute force of scientific progress.





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